I will not lie. What I have witnessed thus far at the COP29 conference is quite disheartening. I am not an expert on this process. I have only attended a few panels and negotiations at the conference this year and maintain only a cursory understanding of the processes at hand, but my limited knowledge has left me without much hope for the future.
This year, the negotiations are centrally focused on addressing the expiration of a clause from the Paris Agreement that established an annual commitment of 100 billion dollars from “developed” to “developing” countries for “climate action.” This goal was met for the first time in 2022, eleven years after it was first agreed to and two years after the deadline initially set in that agreement. Currently, negotiators are aiming to raise that commitment by more than ten-fold. As recently reported in the Guardian, an estimated 2.4 trillion a year is needed for developing countries to cut their greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris Agreement.
This is just one fragment of the climate finance puzzle, with trillions more needed just to mitigate the climate disasters already plaguing countries around the world. Even if negotiators come to an agreement on the climate action contributions, we do not have decades longer to wait. Additionally, as a result of the recent Presidential Election, it is unlikely the United States will even be a member of the UNCCC a year from now. Without the contributions of the US, it is questionable whether a conversation on these finance objectives will even occur.
Meanwhile, the conference and its delegates seem to just carry on as usual. The formality of it all, the gestures at so-called “climate justice” in every panel discussion and official statements, and posters reading “we support a just and equitable future,” in that light, are really a unique form of violence. It feels like some perverse dystopia walking through the halls of this conference, hearing so many words without substance; so many “experts” and “leaders” regurgitating their scripts; so much energy, time, and resources poured into polishing the weapons against people and our planet. The corporations and capitalists have clearly won. Thus far, I have only heard from one or two people that have actually attached any substantive power analysis to their vision for the future. Those few voices are drowned in the sea of corporate billboards, LED displays, and messages flooding nearly every remaining inch of visible space.
I appreciate that hovering in reality at this moment is bleak, but I am far more overwhelmed by the swarm of mistruth and micro-aggression at every corner. It was a particularly sharp violence hearing the American Petroleum Institute Vice President exclaim “great optimism” for the future as millions of lives are stolen, emissions continuously rise, and climate disasters reach record levels each year after the next. I am not concerned with whomever can build the “shiniest” renewable energy program. I am concerned with who can best defend the people being continuously dispossessed and extracted from around the world.
My hope for the future currently exists in knowing that this process will likely fail enough that a better system might be contemplated. Those who are exuding optimism are those that are currently primed to steal the greatest share of wealth from the collapse, or as one poster here read “finding the return on responsibility.” I think I am optimistic, but my optimism is difficult. It is rooted in knowing that there is a real challenge to overcome; that the systemic issues underlying the current crisis must be addressed and prioritized before we can make any genuine progress fighting that crisis. I just wish the UN did not claim to be building the solution. It isn’t. Not like this. Hopefully, for now, people can continue to fight in spite of it. A functioning COP will have to be the byproduct of their bravery.
Colin Rosadino is a law student at the UConn School of Law.